Think Like a Bayesian

Learn how to update your beliefs with evidence, make better decisions, and understand why smart people disagree

What You'll Discover

Bayes' Theorem is more than just a formula—it's a way of thinking about uncertainty and evidence

Understand Bayes' Theorem through intuitive explanations and real-world examples. No advanced math required.

Adjust priors, likelihoods, and evidence to see how posterior probabilities change in real-time.

Challenge your intuition with counter-intuitive probability problems that reveal how we think.

Learn to weigh evidence properly and update your beliefs systematically, leading to more accurate judgments in medicine, business, and daily life.

Recognize common cognitive errors like the base rate fallacy and learn how to think more clearly about probability and risk.

See why rational people reach different conclusions from the same evidence, and have more productive conversations about contentious topics.

Adopt the probabilistic reasoning used in machine learning, scientific research, and data analysis to make sense of complex information.

Begin your journey into Bayesian thinking. No prerequisites needed—just curiosity and an open mind.