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Exploring real-world applications of Bayesian reasoning—from historical mysteries to everyday decisions.
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The Math of Regime Collapse: Why Uncertainty Disfavors Incumbents
Using a conversation with Claude about Iranian regime collapse probability as a teaching example for bounded distributions, second-order uncertainty, and why uncertainty mathematically disfavors incumbents. Note: I am not an Iran expert—the math is the point.
Testing Jewish Truth Claims with Bayesian Reasoning
After analyzing Jesus' resurrection, we now apply Bayesian reasoning to Jewish truth claims at two levels: a hard claim (Torah MiSinai—the Pentateuch was given by God to Moses at Sinai) and two soft claims (Jewish survival and disproportionate impact through history).
Should You Vaccinate Your Child Against Measles? Understanding the Math Behind the Decision
Using Bayes' Theorem to understand vaccine risk assessment. The current low rate of measles exists because of vaccination—but what risk does your unvaccinated child actually face?
Your Mammogram Came Back Positive: What Are the Odds You Actually Have Cancer?
If you receive a positive mammogram result, there's only around a 1.7% chance that you actually have breast cancer for average-risk women. Learn why this counter-intuitive result happens and what Bayes' Theorem teaches us about medical screening.
Did Jesus Rise from the Dead? A Bayesian Analysis
Using Bayes' Theorem to analyze the historical evidence for the resurrection of Jesus of Nazareth, let's explore how prior beliefs, eyewitness testimony, and alternative explanations affect the probability of this extraordinary claim.